Probability

2.55am and Im cranky.
Work was stuffy and stinky today, wearing the extra layer of skeleton and devil mask! But I scared 16 kids, 9 of them screamed and scurried behind their parents, 4 burst their tear ducts :/

I learnt 4 chords today.

Argh


Probability of event(Odds) = Number of favorable outcome/Number of possible outcomeS.
= 1/4 (my perception)

Probability Tree

Vocal =

1b ----------2b (1branch to 2branch)
Yes (1/2) - Yes (1/2) - Yes, Yes (1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4)
----------- No (1/2) - Yes, No (1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4)
1b---------2b
No(1/2) - Yes(0) - No, Yes ( 1/2 x 0 = 0)
--------- No (1) - No, No ( 1/2 x 1 = 1/2)

Silence =

1b--------2b (1branch to 2branch)
Yes (0) -Yes (0) - Yes, Yes (0)
--------- No (0) - Yes, No (0)
1b--------2b
No (0) - Yes (-0) - No, Yes (-0)
-------- No (-0) - No, No (-0)

Given the above statement and diagram and think abstractly, answer the following questions
a)What can be done to improve the odds?
b)What is the take home message of the problem?
c)Out of the 4 possible outcomes, how many can be percieved as favorable? Hint : 4 outcomes (Yes,No,Maybe,I don't know).
d)The above probability tree represent 2 branches only, what is the probability of Yes till the 10th branch?
e)Explain d) with details, why are the odds seem so seemingly insignificant in real life.


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